Many believe the widening India-Pakistani violent conflict over the disputed Kashmir region has something to do with the U.S.-China trade war. After all, the dispute over Kashmir had remained intractable since 1971 when the USA backed Pakistan. Why is this latest confrontation different and threatening to descend into all-out nuclear warfare? The world is never in short supply of conspiracy theories.
For the conspiracy theorists, the conflict was all too predictable as China would seek to reinstate itself as the preferred global go-to trade hub in Asia. The spin goes thus: Within the Trumpian isolationism and trade tariffs imposed on China, America wants India as a counterbalance against China.
Thus, there goes Vice President J.D. Vance to India on a four-day visit to prop up a new trade deal. He meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who poses for photo-ops with Vance, his wife and three children. All smiles. Enter India with good offering: 1.4 billion people – mostly highly skilled and hard working, like the Chinese, a huge booming economy driven by a huge tech-savvy, English-speaking citizenry, a huge military, and geopolitical influence.
In return, Trump offers to grant India some high-end, supersonic weapons that wean them off of Russia and maybe Turkey: F-35 stealth fighter jets, cheaper energy alternatives, and a buoyant consumer market he hopes would be fair this time. So, with China unbudging, America woos a new partner with size, smarts, and strength.
Then things begin to turn quickly. And the conspiracy theories begin to fall like a pack of cards.
On April 22, Pakistan, which, within the life of the Trump administration, had scooped a $397 million in funding to maintain its fleet of F-16s, was a suspect for the deadliest terror attack on the India-controlled side of Kashmir.
It was a day that jolly merry-seekers were observing nature on the hills, mountains of the Baisaran Valley in Pahalgam, Kashmir, gunmen opened fire and gunned down 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan-backed Resistance Front, a Lashkar-e-Taiba proxy, had been implicated for terrorism. But Islamabad denies involvement and calls for an independent inquiry.
Modi was swift. Within 24 hours, he summoned the military council and ordered full red alert, blocked the border crossing, and suspended the dam treaty that helped Pakistani farming, the Indus Water Treaty. He followed it with the expulsion of Pakistani diplomats and visa holders from New Delhi. Pakistan warns of retaliation.
On May 8, India hit Pakistan-administered Nur Khan and other military and Islamic locations, while Pakistan hit back at Srinagar in Jammu, then Udhampur and Pathankot air bases with Turkey-supplied drones bearing short-range surface-to-surface missiles.
As global tension piles up, the threat of nuclear war from the two nuclear powers is real. There is potential disruption of international supply chains and investment in South Asia.
The burden of conflict resolution on the Indo-Pakistani front lies more with the USA than with China. The USA cultivated and propped up both Asian powers to this dangerous pass and must pull them back from the precipice.
However, speaking on a national television on Friday, Vance’s rhetoric was uncomfortable. “We can’t control these countries, though. Fundamentally, India has its gripes with Pakistan, and Pakistan has responded to India. What we can do is to urge these folks to de-escalate a little bit, but we are not going to get involved in the middle of a warfare that’s fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it.”
Yet, China is as much a loser in this conflict as the rest of the world. Blocking supply chains, de-investing in Asia, and disrupting visas would hurt all major regional players. In 2020, China sparred with India over the 3,440km border on the Himalayan Mountains, which resulted in the death of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers, but both sides saw wisdom in calling for a swift ceasefire.
Instead of finger-pointing and conspiracy theories, it would be wise for India and Pakistan to show restraint and stop and make the ceasefire long-lasting.
John Azu
