Dr. Umar Osabo
As May 29, 2025 draws near, marking two years since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office, it is imperative to undertake a critical and comprehensive analysis of his administration’s performance—highlighting both successes and failures. This evaluation should be guided by empirical data, credible comparisons, and objective assessments of key economic and social indicators.
I. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Growth or Contraction?
When President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria’s GDP stood at approximately $477 billion. As of early Q2 2025, the GDP has declined in real terms to around $440 billion, according to estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and corroborated by the IMF. This contraction is largely attributable to the naira devaluation, high inflation, declining investor confidence, and lower-than-expected oil output.
While the Tinubu administration attempted reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidy and liberalization of the foreign exchange market, these policies were not accompanied by strong social safety nets or industrial incentives. Consequently, the real sector suffered.
Oil still dominates GDP composition, but non-oil growth has slowed. Agriculture and manufacturing contracted in 2024 due to insecurity, energy costs, and weak purchasing power.
II. Per Capita Income: The Diminishing Wealth of Nigerians
In May 2023, Nigeria’s per capita income hovered around $2,200. Due to the contraction in GDP and population growth averaging 2.6% per annum, the figure has dropped to an estimated $1,950 as of Q2 2025.
This decline signifies that the average Nigerian is poorer today than two years ago, despite promises of prosperity. The income inequality gap has widened, with the wealthiest 10% controlling nearly half of the national income. Tinubu’s economic liberalism has yet to translate into inclusive growth.
III . Foreign Reserves: Eroding Fiscal Buffers
Nigeria’s foreign reserves were approximately $35 billion in May 2023. By early 2025, they have dropped to around $32 billion, according to CBN data.
While this decline may appear modest, it is significant considering rising external debt servicing costs and falling crude oil revenues. The naira floatation increased pressure on reserves due to speculative attacks and capital flight.
Rather than building fiscal buffers, the government increased external borrowing, raising public debt to nearly $120 billion, with debt servicing consuming over 90% of federal revenue.
IV . Nigeria’s Rank in Africa’s Economy: A Slipping Giant
In 2023, Nigeria remained Africa’s largest economy in nominal GDP. However, by early 2025, South Africa has overtaken Nigeria due to more stable monetary policies and better governance.
Egypt remains close behind. The shift in rankings is symbolic of Nigeria’s waning economic leadership. Investors now prioritize more stable African markets.
V . Exchange Rate and Naira Devaluation
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The Tinubu administration’s decision to unify the multiple exchange rates and float the naira was initially applauded by market analysts. However, the poorly timed and unstructured implementation caused the naira to plummet from ~₦1/$ in May 2023 to over ₦1,600/$ by April 2025.
Inflation soared, pushing the cost of imported goods and raw materials beyond reach. Local manufacturers relying on imports struggled, while speculative hoarding worsened.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under new leadership, has tried to stabilize the FX market with limited success. Confidence in the naira remains weak.
VI . Inflation and Cost of Living
In May 2023, Nigeria’s inflation rate was around 22%. By April 2025, it has surpassed 31%, with food inflation hitting 45%.
Staple food prices have more than doubled. A bag of rice that sold for ₦40,000 in 2023 now costs over ₦105,000. Transport fares, electricity tariffs, and school fees have increased steeply.
The National Minimum Wage of ₦ 30,000 remains unchanged, eroding real wages and pushing millions below the poverty line.
VII . Fuel Subsidy Removal and Its Fallout
On his inauguration day, President Tinubu declared, “Subsidy is gone!” While this bold move was aimed at curbing waste, it lacked accompanying social interventions.
Fuel prices tripled within weeks. Public transport became unaffordable for many. Inflation spiked. Promised palliatives—like the N8,000 cash transfer scheme—were poorly implemented and later suspended.
The fuel subsidy savings were not transparently reinvested in critical infrastructure. Corruption and inefficiency remain rampant in downstream petroleum management.
VIII . Sectoral Review
Security
Nigeria remains besieged by insecurity. Banditry in the North-West, Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East, and kidnappings across the Middle Belt and South continue unabated.
Tinubu’s administration initiated the National Security Architecture Review and appointed new service chiefs, but results have been limited.
Military overstretch, poor welfare for personnel, and intelligence failures persist. Citizens feel increasingly vulnerable.
Education
No major reform has been undertaken. ASUU strikes were averted through temporary compromises, but funding for public universities remains below global benchmarks.
The Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) remains underfunded, and millions of out-of-school children roam the streets.
Commerce and Industry
While the government launched initiatives like the Renewed Hope Microcredit Scheme, SMEs still face harsh conditions: erratic power supply, forex scarcity, and high interest rates.
Import substitution and local content policies are weakly enforced. Manufacturing has contracted, with many firms relocating to Ghana or folding up.
Employment
Unemployment remains high. The official rate is 33%, but youth unemployment is over 50%.
Tinubu’s digital economy push and tech hub initiatives are promising but small in scale. Most jobs created have been informal and low-paying.
Healthcare
Primary healthcare remains dysfunctional. Many Nigerians rely on self-medication or religious remedies.
The health budget is below 5% of total expenditure. Brain drain continues, with over 10,000 doctors emigrating since 2023.
The National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) lacks adequate coverage and efficiency.
Corruption and Public Trust
Despite promises of transparency, anti-corruption agencies have been politically compromised. High-profile prosecutions are rare. Public trust has eroded further.
Tinubu’s cabinet has faced scandals, and asset declaration transparency remains weak.
IX. Nigeria’s International Perception and Foreign Policy: Receding Giant or Strategic Player?
The Loss of Prestige and Diplomatic Hesitation
Tinubu’s foreign policy has faced setbacks, particularly regarding the ECOWAS intervention threat in Niger Republic, which was unpopular domestically and regionally. Nigeria’s traditional leadership in Africa has been questioned.
Economic Diplomacy and Investor Confidence
Despite international travel and investment summits, FDI remains low. Global investors are wary of Nigeria’s unstable business climate and political uncertainty.
Diaspora and Global Image
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Diaspora disillusionment is high. The ‘japa’ wave has not slowed, and repression of dissent at home has damaged Nigeria’s democratic credentials.
X. Public Sentiment and the Shrinking Space for Dissent
Discontent and Protests
Tinubu faces widespread dissatisfaction. Protests against fuel prices, insecurity, and cost of living have occurred nationwide. Labor unions have clashed with the government over wage stagnation and palliative failures.
Media and Civil Liberties
Crackdowns on media, online censorship, and arbitrary arrests have worsened. Press freedom is under attack. Civil society voices are shrinking.
XI. Climate Change, Environment, and Regional Disparities
Desertification in the North and flooding in the South have intensified. Tinubu has signed international commitments but implementation is weak.
Neglect of the Lake Chad region and oil-producing Niger Delta communities has fueled regional alienation.
A Roadmap to Redemption
Stabilize the Naira and Control Inflation:
Coordinate monetary and fiscal policy.
Phase reforms with social protection.
Invest in Agriculture and Manufacturing:
Subsidize mechanization, agro-processing, and local content.
Simplify regulatory frameworks.
Reform Education and Healthcare:
Increase funding .
Partner with private sector.
Tackle Insecurity:
Empower state policing.
Improve intelligence and welfare.
Rebuild Public Trust:
Audit subsidy savings.
Prosecute corrupt officials.
Strengthen Foreign Policy:
Re-engage ECOWAS with diplomacy.
Attract FDI through reforms.
Youth Inclusion:
Appoint more youths in governance.
Reform NYSC and skill acquisition programs.
Conclusion: A Nation at Crossroads
President Tinubu’s second year in office has been marked by controversial reforms, economic decline, and deepening public frustration. Yet, the next two years offer a window for redemption.
With bold, inclusive, and empathetic leadership, Nigeria can reclaim its destiny. Otherwise, the history books may remember this era as another squandered opportunity.
Umar Osabo PhD., can be reached on [email protected]
