John Azu
Anybody who would win the 2019 Presidential election will need to secure at least 20m votes by simple projection.
In 2015, there were 68.8m registered voters but only 30m persons voted, which is just about 44 percent turnout. Buhari polled 15m votes while Jonathan got 12.5m votes.
There are 85m registered voters for 2019, if we expect at least the same 44 percent voter turnout, at least 37m people will vote in this election with possibility for a higher turnout.
President Muhammadu Buhari already has at least 12m votes in the kitty between North West and North East. North West alone has 18m registered voters.
To stand a chance, Atiku will need at least 20m votes to win this election, and 10m of those votes must come between South East and South South where there are 17m registered voters.
Atiku will then secure 5m votes from South West where there are 14m registered voters especially with Lagos population, and the remaining 5m from the entire North, including the FCT, while hoping Buhari will lose much ground in the North Central and North East.
With this simple arithmetic, the governors in the South East are trying to play hard ball with Atiku because he really needs them to get people out to vote. (People don’t like to vote in those areas especially with IPOB).
They are trying to arm-twist him for more selfish deals. Whether they work in the people’s interest is another matter.
They are now creating media hysteria to lose the respect and solidarity of the South West, cause apathy in the South South and deny Atiku any fighting chance in the election
Meanwhile, Buhari will surely perform better in the South East and South zones in this election than the last time.
The good news is that the majority of Nigerians have rejected their gambit.
